For a risk manager at an electric utility, it's crucial to recognize that the threat of catastrophic wildfires is pervasive and exists almost everywhere. Electric utilities are increasingly faced with the challenge of assessing their wildfire risk and applying mitigation strategies to reduce potential impacts. This task demands more than a simple designation of risk levels; it requires a comprehensive, nuanced approach that recognizes the complexities of fuels, climate, and people. As climate conditions evolve, areas once considered low risk are now facing heightened dangers, increasing the likelihood of unexpected and extreme wildfire events. These singular events can prove catastrophic for utilities highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessment.
These events are often termed "unprecedented" due to their extreme magnitude or unexpected locations. But we have seen numerous “unprecedented” wildfire events in the past five years stemming from asset-caused ignitions. A good example of an “unprecedented” event is the 2020 Labor Day Megafires along the West Coast, where a massive drought and one of the strongest east-wind events on record destroyed thousands of homes, burned over 1 million acres, and took 11 lives. Another unprecedented weather event was the 2021 heat dome in the Pacific Northwest, when during its peak, at 121°F, was hotter than Death Valley, CA. According to a recently published paper in Nature, that singular event accounted for 21–34% of the total area burned in 2021.
For electric utilities, these events demonstrate why combining climatological analysis with operational risk modeling is essential. Climatological analysis helps understand what is normal and the operational forecast shows what is coming over the near term. This integration not only offers a comprehensive understanding of wildfire risk but also equips utilities with the ability to forecast unprecedented events, thereby enhancing preparedness and minimizing risk.
To develop such modeling, risk managers need to know their vegetation (and its dryness), topography, and upcoming forecasted weather. Yet, this data collection just highlights risk on the landscape. What managers need in addition is advanced fire spread modeling that can tell where a fire will go and what impacts on structures, acres, and people can occur, so the consequence of that risk can be determined for better decision-making. This advantage is becoming extremely important as more and more severe weather events impact the United States. These “unprecedented” events make it hard to calculate their recurrence intervals and are often explained as “1-in-100” or “1-in-100,000” year events. How can we identify where these extreme events are most likely to occur and are we able to forecast these events in real time?
To do this, risk managers need to leverage climatological analysis based on historical weather data sets, running backward in time 20 to 30 years over a specific territory. The goal is to capture the complete historical variability of fire weather conditions, from typical low-risk days to the most extreme scenarios. Establishing this weather baseline helps in monitoring trends, setting norms, and calculating recurrence intervals.
Additionally, by combining climatological data with the utility’s outage records and asset information, probability of outage/ignition modeling can be conducted. This approach allows for quantifying and rating the likelihood of asset outages and the probability that a specific asset will ignite a wildfire under various weather conditions.
Combining climatological data with operational forecasts can help utility managers understand the severity of any upcoming weather event in their territory. When this data is processed through a fire spread model, it provides insights into where the greatest impacts on the landscape, people, and structures would occur if a fire were to start. Finally, by leveraging the probability of outage and ignition modeling they can see where these impacts are most likely to materialize.
Implementing such a comprehensive modeling framework empowers utilities to proactively manage and respond to severe weather events, even those as unprecedented as the Labor Day 2020 Megafires or the 2021 heat dome. This advanced approach provides utilities with the tools needed to manage severe weather events effectively, ensuring safety and reliability in an era of increasing climate volatility. Ultimately, they can confidently forecast the unprecedented. Learn more about the modeling science behind this work and how that science is put into practice.
